LNG imports to cost over $1b in winter

During this period, the government will import 12 LNG cargoes from Qatar, whereas 10 LNG consignments will be bought from the spot market. LNG supply from Qatar has been severely disrupted by the Middle East war.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Qatar. Energy have a sale-purchase agreement for 15 years covering 2016 to 2031 and the other contract is for 10 years effective from 2021 to 2031. The second LNG contract proved controversial, signed during the tenure of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government, as the country did not require more LNG, which led to a market glut.

Both sale-purchase agreements had been struck under a government-to-government arrangement., PSO receives 6.75 million tonnes of LNG (108 cargoes) each year. For 2026, however, PSO and Qatar. Energy earlier agreed to divert 24 cargoes to other destinations due to low demand in Pakistan.

Sources said that the issue was taken up in a meeting of the energy task force held in the current month. The projected natural gas demand during the upcoming winter season will require LNG imports during the months of November 2026 to February 2027.

Public-sector entities plan to secure approximately half of this requirement under the existing long-term contracts and for planning purposes, the projected supply comprises 12 cargoes from Qatar and no cargo from Eni under long-term contracts, with the remaining 10 cargoes to be procured through spot contracts.

Based on the estimated Brent-linked long-term price and the spot LNG price of $26.30/MMBtu, being the latest spot price quoted in a tender, the estimated import bill of each spot cargo will be $86.3 million. Between November 2026 and February 2027, total LNG import costs are anticipated to reach $1,292.83 million for the 22 cargoes required to meet seasonal demand.

While term agreements with Qatar (11 cargoes valuing at $351.41 million) and Eni (one cargo worth $78.42 million in January) cover $429.83 million of the total, heavy reliance on the spot market – accounting for 10 cargoes costing $863 million – will drive up the overall bill.

Winter requirements will peak in January 2027 with eight cargoes pushing the monthly cost to $437.32 million, followed closely by December 2026 at $369 million, reflecting how spot purchases significantly inflate winter import expenditures.

The estimated import bill for the 12 cargoes under long-term contracts will be $429.83 million, while the estimated import bill for the 10 spot cargoes will be $863 million. Accordingly, the aggregate projected LNG import bill for the four-month period will be approximately $1,292.83 million.

These estimates are subject to actual supply availability, contract quantities, applicable contract prices and the prevailing market rate for spot procurement. Recently, PSO and Qatar have served LNG contract review notices. PSO is seeking the consent of the federal government to review the contract with Qatar.

Energy, designated by Qatar for LNG supply. Their LNG contracts will expire in 2031.