Kashmir PM, CPEC and the crisis of credibility

Every delay in critically important plans, every constitutional or moral violation and every defiance of Supreme Court orders makes this crisis more serious. Firstly, the selection of Azad Kashmir's Prime Minister on a technocrat seat is nothing but a brazen affront to the people at large.

Voters had rejected Iftikhar Gillani in the general election, but Nawaz Sharif - on the face of it - dumped his long-time associate Shah Ghulam Qadir, only to undermine his own slogan: "Honour the vote. " Why would the voter - betrayed in February 2024 - trust him or the system anymore?

Secondly, on August 30, the Central Development Working Party (CDWP) recommended reducing the estimated cost of the "Construction of Water Supply Scheme to Gwadar Town from Mirani Dam under Balochistan Socio-Economic Development Projects Phase-III" by around 20 per cent, to Rs23.82 billion, against the Rs29 billion proposed by the Balochistan government.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal directed the provincial government to initiate a study on wastewater treatment in Gwadar, observing that the city should not be allowed to become another Karachi, with sewage polluting the sea.

The forum, however, asked ECNEC to approve the project subject to satisfactory resolution of outstanding technical observations, particularly regarding demand figures, hydrology, confirmation of the water source, procurement strategy, land acquisition status, a self-sustainable operation and maintenance (O&M) strategy and a realistic implementation plan. Staggering, isn't it?

Eleven years after the signing of multiple CPEC projects, with Gwadar at the centre of it all? Equally intriguing was another meeting on August 28, chaired by Ahsan Iqbal, which formally rejected a Frontier Works Organization (FWO) proposal for developing the 460km Rohri-Multan section of ML-1 and decided to explore alternatives for this section.

The estimates did not adequately include locomotives, coaches and operating costs. Isn't it telling that a minister who has been crying hoarse about CPEC being a game-changer, including the Gwadar and ML-1 projects, is now seeking alternative sources of funding?

He nevertheless deserves commendation for two things: a) refusing to clear the FWO proposal for the Rohri-Multan section because of multiple deficiencies; and b) ordering an independent audit of the costing prepared by the organisation itself. The August 28 meeting offered yet another sad comment: planners have not finalised the ML-1 proposal, let alone secured alternative sources of funding.

Nor do they appear serious; reportedly, only junior officials represented the federal ministries involved. This suggests that the bureaucracy does not expect the project to take off anytime soon. It is a sad story indeed.

Until shortly before Covid-19 struck in late 2019, the Chinese leadership was more than keen to finance the entire ML-1. "Brother, $7–8 billion are peanuts for us, but tell your people to come prepared with feasible plans on ML-1.

We have also worked very hard to get here and expect others to follow the same path," a very senior Chinese official about the possibility of funding for ML-1. What the meeting confirms is that Beijing's promised financing for the project is no longer forthcoming.

For years, the promised investment was presented as the backbone of ML-1. Now the government is struggling to fill the gap.

But with its incompetence, the Pakistani bureaucracy - presumably including those with vested interests in the West and those disinclined towards Chinese investment and influence in the country - stalled the Chinese goodwill, and the project seems to have finally hit a dead end as far as Beijing is concerned.

It is perhaps a blessing in disguise that the Chinese stepped back from their earlier commitments on ML-1 financing. Why? Our politicians and bureaucracy have already messed up Chinese power-sector investments through spiralling circular debt, delayed loan repayments and hurdles in profit repatriation.

The larger issue relates to the rule of law. Locals and foreigners alike are shocked by the way superior court orders are flouted by the authorities.

The latest reversal, on September 2, of a 2022 Islamabad High Court (IHC) judgment on naval farms and the sailing club offered yet another glimpse into the exceptionalism exercised by the higher courts when it comes to protecting deeply entrenched power elites.

Of late, Supreme Court and IHC orders concerning former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been spurned more than once. Such defiance of the rule of law hardly inspires confidence among the people at large or foreign investors.

They see that if companies from even a "time-tested friendly country" such as China face enormous administrative and legal challenges, what could possibly happen to investors accustomed to having absolute confidence in the judiciary and the rule of law?