Crude oil prices hit near two-week high as Saudi attacks threaten supply recovery

The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, while Saudi authorities reported injuries in a further attack on the airport on Sunday. Attacks on commercial shipping have added to concerns about the security of energy exports from the region.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker was struck by a drone near Oman's Sohar anchorage, while another was damaged by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The incidents threaten to undermine the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports recorded in September and have reinforced concerns that further escalation could disrupt supplies and keep prices elevated. Supply recovery remains vulnerable. Oil exports from Gulf countries excluding Iran averaged 19.2 million barrels per day in September, recovering to more than 81% of pre-war levels, Vortexa cited by Reuters.

Before the war began on February 28, the region's exports averaged 23.6 million barrels per day. However, the recovery has been uneven. Crude oil and condensate exports rebounded more strongly than refined fuel shipments, leaving diesel and jet fuel supplies under pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the outlook. The narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman carries a substantial share of global oil and fuel shipments, with limited alternative export routes available to several Gulf producers.

Any sustained disruption could therefore tighten supplies, raise transport costs and increase volatility in international markets. Saudi Arabia has previously redirected crude shipments through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the strait.

But attacks on energy infrastructure have also exposed the vulnerabilities of alternative routes, complicating efforts to maintain uninterrupted exports. Russian diesel deal offers limited immediate reliefUS President Donald Trump has highlighted plans for Russia to supply more diesel to international markets, alongside an announced ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine covering energy infrastructure.

Trump said Russia would immediately provide more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, with further supplies expected. Moscow has also partially lifted its diesel export ban, potentially allowing about 500,000 tonnes to reach international markets.

Analysts, however, questioned whether the additional volumes would be enough to ease prices significantly in the near term, citing damage to Russian refining capacity and the gradual pace at which supplies would reach buyers. The International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, urged member countries to assess their diesel requirements and accelerate previously pledged releases where necessary.

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, while warning that renewed escalation remained a significant upside risk to prices. The bank maintained that adjustments to Middle Eastern supply routes could eventually ease crude prices, but the latest attacks have underscored how quickly the outlook can deteriorate.

Meanwhile, energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico were working to restore production after Hurricane Isaias made landfall over the weekend, adding another factor for oil markets to monitor.

With security risks mounting around key export routes and the recovery in regional supplies still fragile, traders are weighing the prospect of additional oil reaching the market against the risk of further disruption to production, shipping and fuel deliveries.