Netanyahu's political survival on the line as Israel votes

Opinion polls show a close race between Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing allies and a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and security hawk with backers on the right and in the centre. Voters began casting ballots after polling stations opened at 7am (10am PKT).

The polls ​close at 10pm (1am PKT on Wednesday). Netanyahu has campaigned on his wartime leadership and his alliance with US President Donald Trump, who hasendorsedhim and joined Israel in waging war on Iran. ​Netanyahu said on Sunday that Trump was prepared to act again to “finally” remove the Iranian threat, but only if Netanyahu remained in power.

Eisenkot has ⁠accused Netanyahu of "relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats," and said he was confident Trump would work "in full cooperation with any leader chosen by the people. "Netanyahu may again depend on ​far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to form a government.

Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries that accuse them of inciting violence against Palestinians, while Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party has gained ​support in opinion polls. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to power.

If neither can form a governing coalition in the 120-seat parliament, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election is held next year. Read:Israel continues to commit Gaza genocide: UNThe Israeli Central Election Committee said 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote, some 330,000 of them for the first time.

The October 7 reckoning. The election follows one of Israel's most turbulent periods since its establishment in 1948, shaped by ​the trauma of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Israel's use of the Hannibal Directive, the subsequent military assault in Gaza and deep domestic divisions over the policies of Netanyahu's right-wing government.

For many of Netanyahu's opponents, the election ​turns on accountability for the security failures of October 7. Mali Hajaj, an Education Ministry employee and Eisenkot supporter, said: "The most important thing is the establishment of a national inquiry.

"Lisa ⁠Tortor said she hoped Netanyahu would go and "they can form a new government and do some of the repairing of the damage that Bibi has done...for Israel, and Israel's image. " Bibi is Netanyahu's nickname.

But Nof Gabay, an 18-year-old Likud supporter, rejected the idea that Netanyahu was to blame for October 7 and called him "the right man for the state of Israel. ""Netanyahu managed the war in the best possible way," Gabay said.

The wartime record. Israel flattened much of Gaza in a genocidal offensive launched after October 7, when Hamas took ​251 Israelis captive. Gaza health authorities report that Israeli ​attacks killed 74,000 people.

Israel also dealt heavy blows ⁠to Hezbollah in Lebanon and traded strikes with Iran before a 12-day aerial campaign against Iranian nuclear stockpiles and power plants in 2025 and this year's joint US-Israeli war.

Eisenkot has said Israel's next government must prevent Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability, either by force or through an "arrangement" such as ​a US-backed diplomatic solution. Read more:Iran says US ‘not serious’ about talks, rejects claims over nuclear programme.

Iran has, for its part, rejected the notion that they pursue nuclear weaponry. Coalition math. Like nearly all Israeli Jewish-led parties in Israel, Eisenkot opposes the two-state solution that underpinned decades of peace negotiations ​with the Palestinians.

But he has ⁠criticised Jewish settler violence against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which has surged since 2023 and strained Israel's ties with Western states, and opposes Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. In some bastions of Likud support, disenchanted voters have been going door to door to turn voters against Netanyahu.

Some have turned away from Netanyahu as he battles corruption charges he denies in a long-running criminal trial. Also read:Netanyahu faces reckoning for October 7 in Israel's first vote since attackA high turnout ⁠among voters from Israel's ​Arab minority, who are Palestinian by heritage, could help nudge Israel's complex coalition arithmetic in favour of ​Eisenkot.

Though Eisenkot has ruled out partnering with Arab parties, analysts see a scenario where they prop up a minority government he leads in order to ensure Netanyahu is removed from office. "My expectation is that we ​will have only a slight majority either way.

No landslide," said Israeli political analyst Amotz Asa-El of the Shalom Hartman Institute.