Govt increases petrol by Rs3.26, cuts diesel by Rs1.01 for Oct 2

On September 13, PM Shehbazannounceda special relief scheme offering Rs100 per litre off petrol for motorcycles, three-wheeler rickshaws and cars with engines up to 800cc, in an attempt to shield lower-income consumers from the impact of rising petroleum prices. Under the proposal, an estimated 11.8 million beneficiaries would be covered.

Around 10 million two-wheeler users and 800,000 three-wheeler users would be entitled to relief on 20 litres of fuel per month, translating into a maximum monthly benefit of Rs2,000 per beneficiary. Another one million users of cars up to 800cc would receive relief on 30 litres per month, providing them with a maximum benefit of Rs3,000 each.

On Sept 17, the government reintroduced austerity and fuel conservation measures amid rising fuel prices, tightening business operating hours and restricting public events. Under the measures, notified with immediate effect, shops, markets, shopping malls, bazaars, departmental stores, grocery stores, general stores and kiryana shops would close by 9pm throughout the week, the Cabinet Division.

Marriage halls, marquees and other commercial venues hosting festive events would close by 10pm, while restaurants, cafes, eateries, food outlets and standalone fruit and vegetable shops would be allowed to operate until 11pm. Takeaway and home delivery services would remain exempt from the timing restrictions. Global geopolitical developments continue to pose significant risks.

International oil prices are influenced by decisions taken by OPEC+, conflicts in the Middle East, sanctions on oil-producing nations, and disruptions in critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Any interruption in these supply chains can immediately increase crude oil prices and freight costs.

Since Pakistan imports the majority of its petroleum requirements, these developments quickly translate into higher domestic fuel prices. Oil ‌prices jumped more than $3 on Thursday after China suspended oil products exports, potentially tightening fuel markets already coping with global supply shortages, and as there were few signs that diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeliwaron Iran were having an effect.

The new front-month December Brent crude futures contract traded at $101.20 per barrel at 12:47 pm EDT (1647 GMT), up 3.2%, or $3.17, from Wednesday's close. The November contract expired on ​Wednesday, settling at $103.50 per barrel, marking a monthly gain of around 14% in September for the front-month contract.

Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macauuntil further notice, four people briefed on the matter said on Thursday, ​a move that will further crimp war-constrained fuel markets.

"The Chinese export ban suggests concerns about domestic product availability," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that it remains to be seen ​whether the measures will support higher crude imports after recent drawdowns in Chinese crude and fuel stocks.